Digesting the BCS Rankings

bcs_standings1_288x324

Arguably all the talk around the water cooler Monday morning was about the first release of the BCS rankings.  It wouldn’t be college football without there being some sort of controversy with the new rankings. The rankings are as seen below:

BCS-rankings-1

Obviously the first big shocker comes after a big game from Famous Jamies Winston and those boys from Tallahassee as Florida State made the big jump from number five all the way to number two.  Hopping the likes of Ohio State and Oregon in the process.  Ill go into how I think the rankings should be in just a bit.  The next big mover, to me has been the biggest surprise this season, the Missouri Tigers.  Who would have thought that at team named the Tigers would be in the top 5 that wasn’t Clemson or Auburn, but Missouri? The teams that rounded out the top ten were, Stanford, Miami, Baylor, Clemson and Texas Tech.

Granted it has been a fairy tale season for most of the teams in the top 10.  But we’re not in the business to buy into fairy tales; we’re in the business to get you the facts.  And the fact is only four of these teams have realistic chances of winning the National Title in Pasadena come January 6th. These teams are Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and Ohio State.  Man I wish there was some sort of playoff system in college football that took the top four teams in the nation so we could really find out who the best team was! Oh we have that? Oh it starts next year?  Of course it does.  Some of you may be asking, hey Hambino how can you say only four teams have a realistic shot at winning the National Title? Well lets look at some of the teams that would need a lot of help.  Start with number five Missouri.  Missouri has had a great start to the season, and yes they are undefeated in the “mighty” SEC.  But lets take that with a grain of salt, first they lost their starting quarterback versus Georgia last week. Also can we all agree that the SEC really just isn’t as good this year?  Especially the SEC East.  To the naked eye wins against Georgia and Florida would look like great wins, but both teams already have three losses and are outside the top 25.  Other than Alabama I have no idea what I’m going to get out of the SEC on a weekly basis. Five, yes five SEC teams ranked in the top 25 lost this week.  So I like to think Missouri is that good, but I don’t think they stand a chance against Alabama, or LSU for that matter.  Number 6 Stanford to me is quite the mirage; they had to have two kick returns to beat Washington, the same Washington who got smacked by Arizona State and Oregon.  Oh did we mention that they lost to Utah?  Yes Utah, I don’t care how you chalk that one up, it was the same kind of crippling loss that FSU faced last year when they lost to NC State.  I’m truly shocked to see Stanford at 6.  Then there was Miami; Miami is a bit more intriguing to me.  Why? They have a senior quarterback in Stephen Morris who can make almost any throw when he’s on his game.  They also have the stage to climb up the rankings, with games against Florida State and Virginia Tech in back to back weeks with the chance to meet Florida State again in the ACC Title game.  But this is exactly why I’m eliminating them, they wont be able to go undefeated with that gauntlet in front of them.  Sorry Miami, one thing I will say is they look like they’re back, which is good for the ACC.  Baylor and Texas Tech I’m going to lump into the same category because one of them will eliminate the other when they face each other on November 16th.  The rest of the Big 12 is just simply not good enough to merit an undefeated team jumping say a one loss SEC, ACC or Pac 12 team this year.  Oh did I forget number nine Clemson? I’m sorry if you get beat 51-14 in your own stadium, that place you call “Death Valley” you don’t deserve to be in the conversation, but thanks for playing.

I think we can all agree the only way Ohio State gets in is by one of the three team ahead of them losing, and to be honest depending on who the three in front lose to, and how, I would argue they should still sit behind them.  So that leaves three battling for the final two spots.  This is tough, because I’m going to make a statement that won’t sit well with anyone in SEC country.  I think the two best teams in the nation are Oregon and Florida State right now.  The problem is, its not Alabama’s fault.  The SEC is just not what it has been the last decade.  Well the boys in the SEC are all up in arms now saying, “Now how can you say a team in the ACC can be ahead of the mighty SEC?” Lets do the blind eye test, one team plays in a conference with four teams in the top 15, take a wild guess what conference that team plays in?  Yea that would be the ACC and Florida State. Now lets be honest, if Alabama goes undefeated they will be in Pasadena, but doesn’t mean that they’re one of the best two teams in the country.  Oregon and Alabama’s schedule is quite similar, they both play two quality opponents, Oregon with Stanford and UCLA (Twice because of the Pac 12 Championship game) and Alabama with LSU and Texas A&M.  But the difference so far is that Oregon has flat out controlled and dominated all of their games thus far.  I cant say the same about Alabama.  They squeezed by A&M, and were struggling versus a bad Colorado State team.  I will give them credit, over the past three weeks they seemed to have figured it out, that could be because they played Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia State though.  We will find out a lot about all three teams in the coming weeks with games like Oregon and UCLA, Alabama and LSU, and Florida State and Miami, after that Ill have a better grasp on the rankings.

If you didn’t have preseason polls and you just looked at the body of work the teams have had this year, my BCS, which we can call the SBDS (Six Beers Deep System) the rankings would be:

  1. Florida State
  2. Oregon
  3. Alabama
  4. Ohio State
  5. Baylor

But we’re only half way through the season and plenty of things will change, that much we do know in college football.

Advertisements

8 thoughts on “Digesting the BCS Rankings

  1. SBDS – the new standard for championship forecasting excellence.

    • Our hope is that one day, when ESPN is showing the rankings, that the SBDS gets to be put up with the likes of the AP and USA Today poll! As Kevin Garnet would say “Anything is possible”

  2. Love the sbds…I agree FSU deserves the top spot but if Oregon wins the next two weeks they’ll pass them up. Unless Alabama loses (which is a distinct possibility), I think FSU will be on the outside looking in…

    • Totally agree, the stink of an ACC team being in the title game I think is still to strong for most voters to put them in front of a Pac 12 or SEC team at years end, assuming they all stay undefeated. Thanks for the comment!

  3. Miami looks like they’re back? Their “marquee” win is over an average Florida team and struggled to beat a bad UNC team. Sure, they might beat FSU but only because it’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. Take out the rivalry and they’re another road bump on he FSU schedule.

    • Miami is back. At least if you compare to what they have been in years past. By back we mean into some sort of relevance maybe not in the National Title race but definitely in the ACC championship race. Its not “back” to the Miami of the early 2000’s but its getting closer and that’s good for the ACC.

  4. I agree with your comments. What are your predictions for this coming week in college football? Also what are your thoughts on the new committee who will be deciding on the BCS bowl payoff’s? How will that change the rankings for college teams next year?

  5. Pingback: Six Beers Deep | SBDS’S Playoff System

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s